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Science in China Series A-Mathematics 2009, 52(6) 1139-1156 DOI:
10.1007/s11425-009-0065-z ISSN: 1006-9283 CN: 11-1787/N |
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| Special Issue in Honor of the Establishment of IMS China |
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An analysis of Chinese Super League partial results |
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BRILLINGER David R |
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Department of Statistics, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA |
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Abstract：
Some of the history of soccer/world football in China is presented. Then consideration turns to the 2008 Chinese Super League. It has 16 teams. The results from the first half of the season, i.e. 15 rounds, are studied. The response of interest for a specific game is whether the home team won, tied or lost, who the home team was, and who the opponent was. The response is ordinal-valued. A generalized linear model is fit and then, given the remaining fixtures, used to predict the final standings of the season. Other explanatories, such as round number, are considered for inclusion in the model. Simulation is employed to estimate probabilities of interest. |
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Keywords：
China
forecasting
ordinal data
simulation
soccer
Super League
world football
2008
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Received 2008-10-01 Revised 2009-01-05 Online: |
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DOI: 10.1007/s11425-009-0065-z |
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Fund: This work was supported by US National Science Foundation (Grant No. DMS-0707157) |
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Corresponding Authors: |
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Email: brill@stat.berkeley.edu |
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About author: |
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